Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Possible Cease Fire in Gaza

I've been reading 3 english Israeli newspapers (jpost, ynet, and Haaretz) checking out the Israeli point of view on this conflict. I also read the english version of AlJazeera, but it is completely negative towards Israel and so not a favorite read of mine. Apparently the Egyptians have talked a little sense into the leaders of Hamas (both in Gaza and Lebannon). I think the phrases, "They're kicking your butts," and "They won't stop until you are completely eradicated" were central to this conversation. It appears to have worked. Hamas is now publicly saying they want a cease-fire, whereas before this was only in private.

Just a few days ago Hamas publicly said they would never agree to a cease-fire unless "their" goals were met. They just knew that their superior Palestinian resolve would see them through this conflict (Allah willing). News Flash: Israel is not a push-over, even for a real army. Although Hamas knew this, they hoped that the lessons of their big brothers to the north (Hezbollah) from the summer of 2006 fight would see them to a similar victory. It didn't. Little brother in the south still cannot do it. Israel learned from its mistakes, and adjusted their tactics and is doing very well despite what the MSM (Main Stream Media) is reporting.

The cease-fire should go something like this (if everyone gets only what they need):

1. Israeli troops completely withdraw from Gaza and return home.
2. Israel lifts the blockade of Gaza and allows goods to flow freely into/out of the territory.
3. Israel continues to monitor Gaza and not allow weapons to flow into the territory.
4. Egypt controls the Rafah crossing and will not allow weapons to be smuggled across.
5. Hamas (and all other militant groups in Gaza) agree to not fire rockets into Israel.
6. Hamas (and all other militant groups in Gaza) agree to not infilitrate Israel for "resistance" operations (like sucide bombings, murders, etc.).

There is a possibility for Turkish troops to help monitor the cease-fire, but Israel won't allow them to watch from their soil, and Hamas won't want them in Gaza; that leaves Egypt to keep them. This is a tough sell all the way around. I don't see how it will happen.

If Hamas signs off on this type of cease-fire and actually keeps it, it will be a good thing. However, as history in this area of the world has taught us, I don't believe it will hold. Rockets will be fired (eventually, breaking the cease-fire -- surprise, surprise), and Israel will respond disproportionately (as it should to ensure the safety of its citizens), and in a few years we'll be right back in this same situation where another cease-fire is attempted.

Summarizing from "The Incredibles":

No matter how many times you stop the Palestinian terrorists, they always manage to break a cease-fire or find a way to "resist" again.

Israel feels like the maid, they just cleaned up this mess! Can we keep it clean for ... for a whole year?

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